The App is developed based on our recently developed spatiotemporal epidemic modeling (STEM) framework for infected and death count data in the U.S. (48 states in the Mainland and District of Columbia).
- Prediction Interval: an interval within which we expect the number of infected/death cases to lie with 95% probability, which provides the uncertainty of the prediction.
- Weekly Local Risk (WLR) for infected cases: the average number of new (observed or predicted) daily cases per 100,000 people in the past 7 days in an area.
- Weekly Local Risk (WLR) for fatal cases: the average number of new (observed or predicted) daily cases per 1,000,000 people in the past 7 days in an area.
- Infection Rate (IR): the observed/predicted infected cases in an area divide by the corresponding area population.
- Standardized Infection Ratio (SIR): the infected cases per population divided by country infected cases per population. This reveals how risky one state compared to the average of the whole country.
- Fatality Rate (FR): the current observed or predicted state fatal count in an area divide by the observed infection count 14 days ago in the area.
- Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR): the current observed or predicted fatal count in an area divide by the current expected number of deaths in the area.